Posts Tagged ‘shares’

Trading Options Using The Bourse

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

In last week’s Analyst’s Eye article we considered the standardisation of options. This standardisation is important so that it is easy to understand exactly what it is that you are trading. Every option has an underlying share, is a call or a put, has an exercise price and an expiry date and the price you pay for the option is the premium.

With these five pieces of information in mind let’s consider a trade on ANZ below. We will consider trading a put option in this example, however the process of trading a call is identical if you believe a share is going up, instead of down.

Taking (Buying) a Put

You would buy a put if you believe the share is going down. Buying a put gives you the right to sell 1000 of the underlying share at an agreed price on, or before, an agreed date.

Call or Put

We have chosen the share we wish to trade which in our example is ANZ Bank. We believe from our analysis that ANZ is likely to fall from its current price. ANZ was trading at $23.34 on 2 September 2010. We could therefore buy a put option on ANZ.

The Bourse - Insight - ANZ chart

So we now look up the put options available for ANZ. To do this we go to The Bourse toolbar and click the red O toolbar icon, for Exchange Traded Options. We have a choice of expiry dates and exercise prices to make before we can determine the premium (cost) of the option.

Type in the code of the share, which in our case is ANZ, and then select Put to display a list of Put options that are available on ANZ. You will see a list with different expiry dates in the month column, and different exercise prices in the Strike column. The most actively traded options will be near the current price, which is around $23.34.

The Bourse - Insight - ANZ Options

Expiry Date

For any option position you must choose the expiry date you wish to trade. At any given exercise price there is a range of expiry dates. The expiry dates start on Oct 2010 which is about three weeks away, and go all the way out to 2014. The more time an option has until the expiry, the more expensive it will be.

As a guideline option traders would normally take options with between six weeks and three months until the expiry. So on the 21st of July 2010 an options trader would normally consider an expiry date of September the same year. Remember you must allow the share time for the expected move to occur. Most of the time decay for an option occurs during the last month so let’s take a look at the November expiry dates.

Exercise Price

Now we can select the exercise price we wish to trade.

The Bourse - Insight - ANZ Options 2

With ANZ trading at $23.34 the closest exercise price is $23.50. This would be regarded as the at-the-money option. The $23.00 option is out-of-the-money and the $24.00 option is in-the-money.

An in-the-money option costs more than an out-of-the-money option and is lower risk. The in-the-money option already has some intrinsic value, while the out-of-the-money option is all made up of time value. The different options will behave differently based on the movement in the share.

Premium

It will depend on which option you choose as to the premium that you pay for the option. Assuming that you chose the $23.00 November Put option and you bought the option at market price, you would pay a premium of $1.12 per share. Remember that each option contract is for 1000 shares so the cost of 1 option contract would be $1.12 x 1000 = $1120.

The success of the trade will be determined by the movement of the underlying share, but will also be affected by your choice of option. We will consider three different options and how they perform in different scenarios.

Possible Outcomes

There are three possible outcomes: the share is higher, lower or goes sideways. The change in the price will be determined not only by the direction of the move, but also by how quickly the move occurs. The option is a wasting asset, and the time value decreases as time passes.

Share Moves Down

All put options will increase in value, with the out-of-the-money option increasing the most. The out-of-the-money option could move into-the-money which would result in a sharp increase in value. Call options would decrease in value as the share moves down.

Share Moves Up

All put options will drop in value with the sharpest drop shown in the out-of-the-money options. The chance of the out-of-the-money option having value on, or before the expiry date, has become much less, and consequently the value of the option will drop dramatically. Call options behave in the reverse, with prices rising.

Share Moves Sideways

All options drop in value as time passes, regardless of whether they are puts or calls. Options are decaying assets and lose time value every day they are owned.

The out-of-the-money option will normally provide the biggest return coupled with the biggest downside if the trade does not go in the direction the trader expected.

Trading Puts

There are two main reasons that a trader would trade put options. The first is if the trader wanted to profit from a fall in value in the share. A put option increases in value as the underlying share falls, allowing a trader to buy the options and sell it at a higher price.

Put options, like call options, are wasting assets. The trader must pick both the direction and timing to enter the trade. Strong returns can be made trading put options when shares fall away rapidly, as they did in January 2008. It is important that the expiry date that is chosen provides the trader with enough time for the move to play out, so they can benefit from it. A share moving sideways or upwards is going to cost the trader money.

Investors may want to employ put options as a protection mechanism for their portfolio. The put option increases in value as the share drops, but it also gives an investor the right to sell their shares at the exercise price. If you owned WBC shares and were concerned that the shares might drop, you could purchase put options as protection.

If you were correct and WBC did drop you now have the right to sell WBC at the exercise price of the put option. Alternatively you could sell the put option for a profit and continue to own the shares. This is known as hedging.

Adding put options to your trading toolkit offers you the flexibility to profit in different market conditions. Share traders are limited to making money from a rising share price, but options traders just want the share price to move.

By Jeff Cartridge
Education Manager

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The information provided within this blog is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile.

Stock Market Analysis: Leading Indicators for Mining Stocks Part 1

Friday, July 23rd, 2010

Leading Indicators for Mining Stocks – Part 1

This is the first installment of a three-part special on the leading indicators for mining stocks, brought to you by our research department.

The markets have been difficult in recent times as the bulls and the bears have been wrestling for control. We have identified some leading indicators that will give investors an edge in identifying the potential direction of the specific share price movements.

Mining Stocks

The materials sector has continued to underpin the performance of the broader Australian market. It lead the recovery back in early 2009, but has weighed on the markets as a result of the uncertainties from the proposed Resources Super Profits tax.

Sentiment in the mining sector has started to recover and Merger & Acquisition (M&A) activity has picked up since the Government’s reinvention of the RSPT to the watered down version – the Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT).

Commodity prices can be used as a leading indicator for share price movements. We have reviewed key mining stocks that are highly liquid and respond well to movements in commodities. Please note that the commodity prices are recorded in Aussie dollar terms.

BHP Billiton Limited (BHP)

BHP is the world’s largest diversified resources company and is primarily driven to service Asia. BHP is a well managed global resource leader with a balanced portfolio of world class, long life assets and a full suite of conventional energy products. It prides itself on having low cost operations and a strong balance sheet. Most of its revenue comes from the relatively stable economies of Australia and NZ, North America and Europe.

Copper has also been a highlight this week breaking to new monthly highs, with the last trading being above the key $US3.00 a pound at $US3.1675. Copper is considered a bellwether for underlying economic strength and this is a positive for BHP.

The chart below illustrates how closely correlated copper and BHP are. The chart shows that back in early 2008 the copper price foreshadowed a pullback in the BHP share price by about six weeks. While in early 2009 the copper price gave a confirmation of turn around in BHP’s share price.

Copper is a leading indicator for BHP share price movements

Copper is a leading indicator for BHP share price movements

The correlation has held throughout 2009 to 2010, however for the year-to-date the copper price has not offered a leading indication for the BHP share price. This may be about to change with the copper price breaking to new monthly highs, indicating BHP could be setting up for another run higher.

The Trade

Commodity prices can be used as a leading indicator for share price movements, however you need to convert the pricing to Aussie dollar equivalents for the best results. Note that it’s important to check the US ADRs for overnight share price movements as well.

Look out for the second installment of this three part special next week, when we take a look at Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM). To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up to receive our weekly newsletter.

By Michael Hevern
Head of Research

You can receive more fundamental information on BHP Biliton and Newcrest Mining on our website.

The information provided within this blog is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile.

Wednesday, 24th March 2010 Morning Wrap

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Presented by Michael Hevern
MDSFinancial

Click here to watch the presentation.

or

Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (1110Kb).

General Advice Only
***********************************************
In this morning s wrap

SP500 up 0.7%
Housing Sales Down 3rd Month; Defensives Weigh;
Commodities Stocks Recover

NASDAQ up 0.8%
Fed Inflation Under Control;
21 Month Highs;

Dollar Index: Steady Around 80 Level
US$ Higher;
A$ up 91.93

DOW: up 0.9% (up 65% since Mar 09)
GE, Fedex up 20% Since Feb. Lows

FTSE: up 0.5% Above Resistance
UK: Highest Since Jun 08; Energy & Insurers Up;
EU 25th Mar. Greece; DAX & CAC up 0.5%

CHINA: down 0.7%
China: Bank of China (#3) Quadruples EPS; Google No Censor
Hang Seng up 0.3%

Oil: up 0.1% ($81)
Holds Below Resistance

Gold: up 0.4% ($1103)
Commodities Recover;
Dollar Higher

SPI Futures up 35 or up 0.7% (At Resistance)
Positive Leads

ASX News
RIO Closed Court Trial ends today
FMG may sell major project stakes O/S
Coal China set for record imports
ANZ CEO Mike Smith warns of GFC aftershocks
Banks, Energy and Materials to recover
ASX to open higher
US & UK positive

Friday, 3rd July 2009 Morning Wrap

Friday, July 3rd, 2009

Presented by Michael Hevern
MDSFinancial

Click here to watch the presentation.

or

Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (908Kb).

General Advice Only
*************************************************
In this morning s wrap

DOW: down 2.6%
Unemployment 9.5% (26 Year Highs)
Reporting Starts Next Week;

NASDAQ: down 2.6%
Profit Taking

FTSE: down 2.5%
Miners & Energy Weigh;
DAX down 3.8% & CAC down 3.1%

NIKKEI: down 0.6%
Japan: Seven and I (#1 Retailer) Profit down 28%; Sales -11%
Hang Seng down 1.1%

Oil: Down 3.7% ($68)
US Inventories Up; 5 Week Lows
Possible Double Top Setup

Gold: down 1.4% ($930)
Commodities Lower;
USD Higher

SPI down 82 (2.1%)
SPI: Critical Level(s): 3850 to 4050

ASX News

QAN headwinds Tiger (domestic SYD to MELB) & Delta (SYD to LA)
BOQ sells $750m gov t guaranteed bonds (3 times oversubscribed)
WBC scraps shareholder benefits package
Materials & Energy stocks to weigh
Banks to weigh
ASX to open lower
US & UK poor employment data; light volumes

Monday, 22 June 2009 Morning Wrap

Monday, June 22nd, 2009

Presented by Michael Hevern
MDSFinancial

Click here to watch the presentation.

or

Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (965Kb).

General Advice Only
*************************************************
In this morning s wrap

DOW: up 0.7% (down 3.2% for Week)
Financials & Tech Lead;
Busy Week Ahead For Economic Data

NASDAQ: up 1.1% (down 1.8% for Week)
Fed to Rate Bias To Upside

FTSE: up 1.5 (down 2% for Week)
Xstrata to Merge with Anglo ($US83bn deal);
DAX down 1.4% & CAC up 0.9%

NIKKEI: up 0.9% (down 3.6% for Week)
Japan: Elections/Spending/Welfare;
Hang Seng up 0.8%

Oil: down 2.6% (down 4.1% for Week)
Breaks $70

Gold: Flat (down 0.4% for Week) ($935)
Commodities Up;
USD Lower

SPI up 7 (0.2%);
SPI: Critical Level(s): 3850 to 4000

ASX News

$50bn worth of capital raisings YTD
AAC- no to capital raising
BCI raises $22m
WOR Egypt/Armenian nuclear power plants
MCC raising $190m; Profits to double
ASX to open flat;
US & UK mixed
30-Jun just over a week away

Thursday 26th March 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

Thursday, March 26th, 2009

Presented by Michael Hevern
MDS Financial

Click here to watch the presentation.

or

Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (1154Kb).

General Advice Only

*************************************************
In this morning s wrap

DOW: up 1.2% – Breakout?
Choppy Trade Ends Higher; US Durables Goods Orders (+3.4%) & New Homes Sales (+4.7%)

NASDAQ: up 0.8%
Uptrend Holding;
IBM Concerns re Job Cuts

FTSE: down 0.3% – Resistance!
Miners and Financials see Profit Taking;
DAX down 1.4% & CAC up 0.7%

NIKKEI: down 0.1%
Manufacturers Sentiment Worst in 30 Years;
Hang Seng down 2%

Oil: down 2.1% – Below $53
US Inventories Up
On Weakening Demand

Gold: up 1.4% ($936) Big Picture
Commodities Mixed;
World Currency

SPI: Critical Levels: 3640 & 3440
SPI up 15;
ASX200 At Resistance

ASX News
* Options Expiry Today
* RIO ACCC approves Chinalco Proposal; FIRB still has 90 days to decide
* Top 200 Rupert tops Rich List 200 (though wealth halved at $3.5bn); Andrew Forrest * No. 2 (wealth down 70%at $2.4bn); Frank Lowry no. 3 ($1.8bn); James Packer ($1.5bn)
* ANZ Aims for Top 4 foreign bank in China
* Energy and Golds to weaken
* Financials to see profit taking
* RBA Glen Stevens talks economy up; Financial Stabilty Review Report today
* ASX to open flat US Mixed

Super funds advised to buy

Monday, March 16th, 2009

With markets as cheap as they now are, some asset consultants have been suggesting now is the time for super funds to buy, according to The Australian.

Following on from last week s strong performances on Wall Street, and signals that good value stocks are available in the market, these analysts are recommending careful investment in global equities, top quality debt and credit markets.

As with most of the good news recently, the stress is still on caution. Still of concern:

    • the bottom of the market is yet to be identified
    • dividends are likely to fall further
    • we don t yet know how outstanding corporate debt will be handled
  • This article offers a range of opinions, click here to read the full text.

    Will Fortescue be the next miner to go offshore?

    Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

    Fortescue Metals looks like being the next Australian miner to be picked up by overseas investors.

    According to the HeraldSun, the American miner Anglo American and China Investment Corp are in talks with Fortescue Metals Group, and both were seen visiting Fortescue properties last week.

    This is the latest of a string of deals which has also seen top Australian miners Rio Tinto and OZ Minerals looking to sell substantial assets to foreign buyers.

    This deal would further add to Treasure Wayne Swan s headache regarding foreign ownership legislation, which he has signalled is soon likely to be tightened.

    Rumours of a takeover have bubbled up several times in recent months, causing spikes in the share price and requiring Fortescue to respond to ASX inquiries. Fortescue has not commented on this latest speculation.

    Stocks for your watchlist:

    • Fortescue Metals Group: FMG.AX (ASX)
    • Anglo American PLC: AAL.L (London Stock Exchange); AAUK.O (NASDAQ)
    • BHP Billiton: BHP.AX (ASX); BLT.L (London Stock Exchange); BHP.N (New York Stock Exchange)

    Further information:

    US Markets Rebound on 12/12/2009

    Thursday, February 12th, 2009

    The US markets rebounded higher after agreement was reached by the House and the Senate on a bailout proposal to be finalised by the end of this week.   The Dow closed up by 51 points or 0.65%, while the S&P 500 was higher by 6 points or 0.79% and the Nasdaq added 5 points or 0.38%.  

    Oil continued to fall losing another $1.61 to $35.94 while gold rocketed higher up by $30 to $944/oz.

    Arrow Seeks to Secure Pure Energy

    Thursday, February 12th, 2009

    The battle for ownership of Pure Energy moves to the next level with Arrow Energy (AOE) revising its takeover offer to an unconditional offer of $3.00 cash and 1.57 Arrow shares for every Pure share.  This offer values Pure at $7.16 per share, which is an increase of 21% over Arrow’s initial offer and 12% over the offer announced by BG Group.

    The independent directors have unanimously recommended that shareholders accept the offer provided no superior offer is received within 7 days.  

    http://www.arrowenergy.com.au/page/Investor_Relations/ASX_Announcements/